We entered the fourth quarter of 2018 with some anticipation. Driving this was the advent of complete sanctions imposed by the American government on Iran. The arrival of these sanctions had been discussed at length in an OilPrice article that took the prevailing wisdom and attempted to read through the tea leaves for direction. How wrong we were!
This anticipation was in spite of having endured a steep decline in crude prices as October waned. The oil price volatility we saw from the middle of the 4th quarter was breathtaking. It led to a single month decline of about 15 percent that has continued into early November.