Is The EIA Exaggerating U.S. Oil Production?

August 4, 2017: Is The EIA Exaggerating U.S. Oil Production?

Oil

Oil is back at $50 per barrel, restoring some semblance of confidence in the market. But that is just about as much as we can expect in terms of a rally, according to most analysts, with momentum likely to dissipate from here.

But not everyone agrees. Many are worried that oil prices will crash again next year as OPEC scrambles for an exit strategy, but there is actually a bullish case for oil that is not outlandish.

First, crude oil inventories continue to fall. The EIA just released another week’s worth of data, showing another drawdown in inventories. It was a bit more modest last week – 1.5 million barrels – compared to previous four weeks, but the drawdowns continue. U.S. crude oil inventories are now down more than 50 million barrels from the peak hit in March, with stocks back within the five-year range.

But a larger reason why oil prices could deviate from expectations and actually rise quite a bit is because the market is poetically assuming a lot more oil is set to come online than might actually be the case. As Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, notes in a CNBC column, the market has already factored in further production gains from Libya and Nigeria, a major reason why market pessimism really spread in the month of June. But because that assumption is baked into today’s price, if those two countries – beset with violence and instability – fail to come through, then a lot less oil will reach the market than is generally assumed.

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